Game plan · Week 1
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 28.7 points this week, give or take 57 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 29.4.
A typical week lands between -28 and 86. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -44.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 6 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA Wed 8:20 PM ET · locked | SEA 62% | 61% | +1.2 | Seattle Seahawks over the Patriots: Elo 59%, market 59%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 34 Elo. |
| TB at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 64% | 62% | +1.5 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Buccaneers: Elo 61%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Burrow is worth 18 Elo. |
| NO at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | DET 74% | 71% | +4.3 | Detroit Lions over the Saints: Elo 67%, market 70%, System 71%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 18 Elo. |
| ATL at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 73% | 70% | +3.8 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Falcons: Elo 65%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 29 Elo. |
| ARI at LAC Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | LAC 80% | 76% | +6.6 | Los Angeles Chargers over the Cardinals: Elo 75%, market 74%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 20 Elo; Brissett is costing 44 Elo. |
| WSH at PHI Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | PHI 71% | 69% | +3.4 | Philadelphia Eagles over the Commanders: Elo 65%, market 67%, System 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 19 Elo; Daniels is worth 17 Elo. |
Fade Elo 3 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 51% | 51% | +0.0 | Buffalo Bills over the Texans: Elo 41%, market 54%, System 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. |
| MIA at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | LV 55% | 55% | +0.2 | Las Vegas Raiders over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 59%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 78 Elo; Willis is worth 100 Elo. |
| GB at MIN Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | MIN 58% | 57% | +0.5 | Minnesota Vikings over the Packers: Elo 66%, market 54%, System 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 47 Elo. |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | TEN 55% | 54% | +0.2 | Tennessee Titans over the Jets: Elo 53%, market 54%, System 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Ward is worth 21 Elo; Smith is worth 24 Elo. |
Play straight 6 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAR Thu 8:35 PM ET · locked | LAR 60% | 59% | +0.7 | Los Angeles Rams over the 49ers: Elo 54%, market 60%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| BAL at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BAL 58% | 57% | +0.4 | Baltimore Ravens over the Colts: Elo 50%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| CHI at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 58% | 57% | +0.5 | Chicago Bears over the Panthers: Elo 52%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| CLE at JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | JAX 75% | 72% | +4.7 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Browns: Elo 67%, market 74%, System 72%. Clear favorite, take the average. Watson is worth 38 Elo. |
| DAL at NYG Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | DAL 57% | 56% | +0.4 | Dallas Cowboys over the Giants: Elo 49%, market 59%, System 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Prescott is worth 19 Elo. |
| DEN at KC Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | KC 57% | 56% | +0.3 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Broncos: Elo 52%, market 57%, System 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 51 Elo. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.