Game plan · Week 1
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 29.1 points this week, give or take 45 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 29.4.
A typical week lands between -16 and 74. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -28.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Press 6 games
The lock and tight-agreement games. The favorite has won more often than forecast in these spots; The System already leans in, and this is where a stretch pays most.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE at SEA Wed 8:20 PM ET · locked | SEA 60% | 61% | +1.2 | Seattle Seahawks over the Patriots: Elo 59%, market 59%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 34 Elo. |
| NO at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | DET 69% | 71% | +4.4 | Detroit Lions over the Saints: Elo 67%, market 70%, System 71%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 18 Elo. |
| ATL at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | PIT 68% | 70% | +3.8 | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Falcons: Elo 65%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 29 Elo. |
| TB at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CIN 61% | 62% | +1.5 | Cincinnati Bengals over the Buccaneers: Elo 61%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Burrow is worth 18 Elo. |
| ARI at LAC Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | LAC 73% | 76% | +6.7 | Los Angeles Chargers over the Cardinals: Elo 75%, market 74%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 20 Elo; Brissett is costing 44 Elo. |
| WSH at PHI Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | PHI 67% | 69% | +3.5 | Philadelphia Eagles over the Commanders: Elo 65%, market 67%, System 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 19 Elo; Daniels is worth 17 Elo. |
Fade Elo 3 games
Big disagreements. Elo is usually the one that's wrong; The System averages the two, so these numbers sit well below Elo's. Don't be tempted to move them back toward Elo.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BUF 51% | 51% | +0.0 | Buffalo Bills over the Texans: Elo 41%, market 54%, System 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. |
| MIA at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | LV 54% | 55% | +0.2 | Las Vegas Raiders over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 59%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 78 Elo; Willis is worth 100 Elo. |
| GB at MIN Sun 4:25 PM ET · locked | MIN 57% | 57% | +0.5 | Minnesota Vikings over the Packers: Elo 66%, market 54%, System 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 47 Elo. |
Keep close to 50 1 game
Coin flips. There is almost nothing to win here and 25+ points to lose; small numbers only.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | TEN 54% | 54% | +0.2 | Tennessee Titans over the Jets: Elo 53%, market 54%, System 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Ward is worth 21 Elo; Smith is worth 24 Elo. |
Play straight 6 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at LAR Thu 8:35 PM ET · locked | LAR 58% | 59% | +0.7 | Los Angeles Rams over the 49ers: Elo 54%, market 60%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| BAL at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | BAL 56% | 57% | +0.4 | Baltimore Ravens over the Colts: Elo 50%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| CHI at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | CHI 56% | 57% | +0.5 | Chicago Bears over the Panthers: Elo 52%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| CLE at JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET · locked | JAX 70% | 72% | +4.7 | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Browns: Elo 67%, market 74%, System 72%. Clear favorite, take the average. Watson is worth 38 Elo. |
| DAL at NYG Sun 8:20 PM ET · locked | DAL 56% | 56% | +0.4 | Dallas Cowboys over the Giants: Elo 49%, market 59%, System 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Prescott is worth 19 Elo. |
| DEN at KC Mon 8:15 PM ET · locked | KC 55% | 56% | +0.3 | Kansas City Chiefs over the Broncos: Elo 52%, market 57%, System 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 51 Elo. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.