Week 11 breakdown
Our picks
Picks freeze before the week's first kickoff, once at least half the games have a market line.
Line movement so far
No consensus line has moved 3 points or more.
Where the markets disagree with each other
The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.
Every game, with a suggested slider
The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.
| Game | Suggested | Why |
|---|---|---|
| IND at HOU Thu 8:15 PM ET | HOU 66% | No market line yet. |
| TB at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET | DET 60% | No market line yet. |
| MIA at BUF Sun 1:00 PM ET | BUF 79% | No market line yet. |
| NO at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | CHI 80% | No market line yet. |
| TEN at DAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | DAL 72% | No market line yet. |
| BAL at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET | CAR 52% | No market line yet. |
| ARI at KC Sun 1:00 PM ET | KC 83% | No market line yet. |
| JAX at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | JAX 67% | No market line yet. |
| NYJ at LAC Sun 4:05 PM ET | LAC 58% | No market line yet. |
| PIT at PHI Sun 4:25 PM ET | PIT 68% | No market line yet. |
| LV at DEN Sun 4:25 PM ET | DEN 76% | No market line yet. |
| MIN at SF Sun 8:20 PM ET | MIN 59% | No market line yet. |
| CIN at WSH Mon 8:15 PM ET | CIN 58% | No market line yet. |
Week 7 in review
Week leader: Kalm with +19.6.
Cautious (baba) +33.8 · The blend +32.8 · Strong (baba) +32.8 · Maybe (Kalm) +32.0 · Pure market (baba) +30.9 · Sportsbooks +30.3 · Polymarket +30.3 · Closing spread +30.0 · The System +29.6 · Kalshi +28.9 · Bold (baba) +28.9 · The bot crowd +27.5 · The crowd +14.6 · The sharp crowd +13.8 · Elo (the model) +6.4 · Pure Elo (baba) +6.4
Bold call of the week: LV missed (LAR 35, LV 21).
Lock of the week: HOU missed (NYG 27, HOU 21).
Biggest upset: NYG won at 24%.