Week 3 breakdown

Tight agreement 5 games

Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.

• ATL at GB — Green Bay Packers over the Falcons: Elo 66%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Penix is worth 28 Elo.
• TEN at NYG — New York Giants over the Titans: Elo 59%, market 56%, System 57%. Tight agreement: go above both. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Ward is worth 19 Elo; wind 16 mph (matters), 61°F.
• LAC at BUF — Buffalo Bills over the Chargers: Elo 77%, market 75%, System 78%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; BUF off a bye.
• ARI at SF — San Francisco 49ers over the Cardinals: Elo 78%, market 77%, System 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
• PHI at CHI — Philadelphia Eagles over the Bears: Elo 61%, market 64%, System 65%. Tight agreement: go above both. Keenum is costing 100 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo.

Where Elo and the market disagree 5 games

Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.

• KC at MIA — Kansas City Chiefs over the Dolphins: Elo 52%, market 84%, System 73%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; wind 4 mph, 83°F (heat hurts favorites).
• CIN at PIT — Cincinnati Bengals over the Steelers: Elo 50%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
• CAR at CLE — Carolina Panthers over the Browns: Elo 44%, market 54%, System 52%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo.
• MIN at TB — Minnesota Vikings over the Buccaneers: Elo 74%, market 51%, System 56%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo; wind 7 mph, 84°F (heat hurts favorites).
• LV at NO — New Orleans Saints over the Raiders: Elo 52%, market 64%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo.

Games that swing the most

Importance is how far the league's playoff odds move between a home win and an away win, from simulated seasons. Quality is the strength of the two teams. Both 0–100.

• LV at NO: importance 54, quality 26
• BAL at DAL: importance 54, quality 33
• LAR at DEN: importance 52, quality 55
• HOU at IND: importance 47, quality 31
• CAR at CLE: importance 46, quality 20

Line movement since the picks froze

• SEA at WSH: WSH 46% → 28% (money against WSH)
• TEN at NYG: NYG 71% → 64% (money against NYG)
• CIN at PIT: PIT 45% → 38% (money against PIT)
• MIN at TB: TB 53% → 47% (money against TB)
• PHI at CHI: CHI 34% → 39% (money on CHI)
• NE at JAX: JAX 55% → 61% (money on JAX)
• LAC at BUF: BUF 71% → 75% (money on BUF)
• NYJ at DET: DET 76% → 72% (money against DET)

Where the markets disagree with each other

• LAR at DEN: Books 46% vs Kalshi 51% (4 pts apart)

Every game, with a suggested slider

The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.

Week 2 in review