Week 18 breakdown
Our picks
Picks freeze before the week's first kickoff, once at least half the games have a market line.
Line movement so far
No consensus line has moved 3 points or more.
Where the markets disagree with each other
The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.
Every game, with a suggested slider
The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.
| Game | Suggested | Why |
|---|---|---|
| DET at GB Sun 12:00 AM ET | GB 52% | No market line yet. |
| ATL at CAR Sun 12:00 AM ET | CAR 52% | No market line yet. |
| PIT at BAL Sun 12:00 AM ET | PIT 52% | No market line yet. |
| JAX at IND Sun 12:00 AM ET | JAX 68% | No market line yet. |
| LV at KC Sun 12:00 AM ET | KC 70% | No market line yet. |
| TEN at HOU Sun 12:00 AM ET | HOU 76% | No market line yet. |
| NYJ at BUF Sun 12:00 AM ET | BUF 84% | No market line yet. |
| CLE at CIN Sun 12:00 AM ET | CIN 73% | No market line yet. |
| LAC at DEN Sun 12:00 AM ET | DEN 81% | No market line yet. |
| MIA at NE Sun 12:00 AM ET | NE 75% | No market line yet. |
| TB at NO Sun 12:00 AM ET | TB 56% | No market line yet. |
| CHI at MIN Sun 12:00 AM ET | MIN 68% | No market line yet. |
| SEA at LAR Sun 12:00 AM ET | SEA 53% | No market line yet. |
| PHI at NYG Sun 12:00 AM ET | NYG 63% | No market line yet. |
| SF at ARI Sun 12:00 AM ET | SF 78% | No market line yet. |
| DAL at WSH Sun 12:00 AM ET | WSH 57% | No market line yet. |
Week 7 in review
Week leader: Kalm with +19.6.
Cautious (baba) +33.8 · The blend +32.8 · Strong (baba) +32.8 · Maybe (Kalm) +32.0 · Pure market (baba) +30.9 · Sportsbooks +30.3 · Polymarket +30.3 · Closing spread +30.0 · The System +29.6 · Kalshi +28.9 · Bold (baba) +28.9 · The bot crowd +27.5 · The crowd +14.6 · The sharp crowd +13.8 · Elo (the model) +6.4 · Pure Elo (baba) +6.4
Bold call of the week: LV missed (LAR 35, LV 21).
Lock of the week: HOU missed (NYG 27, HOU 21).
Biggest upset: NYG won at 24%.