Week 16 breakdown
Our picks
Picks freeze before the week's first kickoff, once at least half the games have a market line.
Line movement so far
No consensus line has moved 3 points or more.
Where the markets disagree with each other
The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.
Every game, with a suggested slider
The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.
| Game | Suggested | Why |
|---|---|---|
| HOU at PHI Thu 8:15 PM ET | HOU 61% | No market line yet. |
| GB at CHI Fri 1:00 PM ET | CHI 66% | No market line yet. |
| BUF at DEN Fri 4:30 PM ET | DEN 54% | No market line yet. |
| LAR at SEA Fri 8:15 PM ET | SEA 66% | No market line yet. |
| CIN at IND Sun 12:00 AM ET | CIN 65% | No market line yet. |
| CAR at PIT Sun 12:00 AM ET | PIT 73% | No market line yet. |
| WSH at MIN Sun 12:00 AM ET | MIN 83% | No market line yet. |
| TB at ATL Sun 12:00 AM ET | ATL 51% | No market line yet. |
| NE at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET | NE 70% | No market line yet. |
| CLE at BAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | BAL 57% | No market line yet. |
| LAC at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET | MIA 60% | No market line yet. |
| ARI at NO Sun 1:00 PM ET | NO 68% | No market line yet. |
| TEN at LV Sun 4:05 PM ET | LV 75% | No market line yet. |
| SF at KC Sun 4:25 PM ET | SF 51% | No market line yet. |
| JAX at DAL Sun 8:20 PM ET | JAX 64% | No market line yet. |
| NYG at DET Mon 8:15 PM ET | DET 76% | No market line yet. |
Week 7 in review
Week leader: Kalm with +19.6.
Cautious (baba) +33.8 · The blend +32.8 · Strong (baba) +32.8 · Maybe (Kalm) +32.0 · Pure market (baba) +30.9 · Sportsbooks +30.3 · Polymarket +30.3 · Closing spread +30.0 · The System +29.6 · Kalshi +28.9 · Bold (baba) +28.9 · The bot crowd +27.5 · The crowd +14.6 · The sharp crowd +13.8 · Elo (the model) +6.4 · Pure Elo (baba) +6.4
Bold call of the week: LV missed (LAR 35, LV 21).
Lock of the week: HOU missed (NYG 27, HOU 21).
Biggest upset: NYG won at 24%.