Week 2 breakdown

Tight agreement 5 games

Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.

• DET at BUF — Buffalo Bills over the Lions: Elo 64%, market 66%, System 67%. Tight agreement: go above both.
• PIT at NE — New England Patriots over the Steelers: Elo 66%, market 67%, System 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. NE off a bye.
• SEA at ARI — Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 68%, market 65%, System 68%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo; Lock is costing 30 Elo; SEA off a bye.
• IND at KC — Kansas City Chiefs over the Colts: Elo 70%, market 71%, System 73%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
• NYG at LAR — Los Angeles Rams over the Giants: Elo 70%, market 72%, System 74%. Tight agreement: go above both. LAR off a bye.

Where Elo and the market disagree 7 games

Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.

• CAR at ATL — Carolina Panthers over the Falcons: Elo 37%, market 56%, System 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Tagovailoa is worth 16 Elo.
• MIN at CHI — Chicago Bears over the Vikings: Elo 51%, market 66%, System 62%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo.
• GB at NYJ — Green Bay Packers over the Jets: Elo 48%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo.
• CLE at TB — Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Browns: Elo 58%, market 78%, System 71%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 3 mph, 86°F (heat hurts favorites).
• LV at LAC — Los Angeles Chargers over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 73%, System 69%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
• WSH at DAL — Dallas Cowboys over the Commanders: Elo 55%, market 65%, System 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
• MIA at SF — San Francisco 49ers over the Dolphins: Elo 67%, market 88%, System 83%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; SF off a bye.

Games that swing the most

Importance is how far the league's playoff odds move between a home win and an away win, from simulated seasons. Quality is the strength of the two teams. Both 0–100.

• CIN at HOU: importance 64, quality 43 · a game to think hardest about
• PIT at NE: importance 59, quality 48
• JAX at DEN: importance 54, quality 53
• LV at LAC: importance 53, quality 17
• SEA at ARI: importance 52, quality 53

Line movement since the picks froze

No consensus line has moved 3 points or more.

Where the markets disagree with each other

The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.

Every game, with a suggested slider

The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.

Week 1 in review