Week 7 breakdown

Tight agreement 3 games

Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.

• PIT at NO — Pittsburgh Steelers over the Saints: Elo 63%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 16 Elo.
• GB at DET — Detroit Lions over the Packers: Elo 61%, market 65%, System 66%. Tight agreement: go above both. DET off a bye.
• KC at SEA — Seattle Seahawks over the Chiefs: Elo 60%, market 58%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; SEA off a bye.

Where Elo and the market disagree 5 games

Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.

• CIN at BAL — Cincinnati Bengals over the Ravens: Elo 48%, market 60%, System 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Huntley is costing 16 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo; CIN off a bye.
• IND at MIN — Minnesota Vikings over the Colts: Elo 87%, market 74%, System 77%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo; MIN off a bye.
• MIA at NYJ — New York Jets over the Dolphins: Elo 50%, market 65%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo; MIA off a bye.
• LAR at LV — Los Angeles Rams over the Raiders: Elo 48%, market 61%, System 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
• DAL at PHI — Dallas Cowboys over the Eagles: Elo 45%, market 66%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo; Prescott is worth 17 Elo.

Games that swing the most

Importance is how far the league's playoff odds move between a home win and an away win, from simulated seasons. Quality is the strength of the two teams. Both 0–100.

• CIN at BAL: importance 58, quality 47
• GB at DET: importance 58, quality 44
• NYG at HOU: importance 48, quality 33
• TB at CAR: importance 47, quality 26
• DAL at PHI: importance 44, quality 15

Line movement since the picks froze

• LAR at LV: LV 26% → 32% (money on LV)
• NE at CHI: CHI 54% → 59% (money on CHI)
• CIN at BAL: BAL 61% → 57% (money against BAL)
• DAL at PHI: PHI 31% → 34% (money on PHI)
• DEN at ARI: ARI 30% → 33% (money on ARI)

Where the markets disagree with each other

The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.

Every game, with a suggested slider

The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.

Week 6 in review