Week 9 breakdown

Tight agreement 6 games

Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.

• CIN at ATL — Cincinnati Bengals over the Falcons: Elo 64%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Penix is worth 28 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
• NYJ at KC — Kansas City Chiefs over the Jets: Elo 79%, market 80%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo.
• GB at NE — New England Patriots over the Packers: Elo 63%, market 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. GB off a bye; wind 2 mph, 48°F (cold helps favorites).
• LV at SF — San Francisco 49ers over the Raiders: Elo 77%, market 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; SF off a bye.
• ARI at SEA — Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 87%, market 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Minshew is costing 87 Elo; wind 15 mph (matters), 60°F.
• TB at CHI — Chicago Bears over the Buccaneers: Elo 68%, market 68%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both.

Where Elo and the market disagree 4 games

Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.

• JAX at BAL — Jacksonville Jaguars over the Ravens: Elo 60%, market 79%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Huntley is costing 16 Elo.
• DET at MIA — Detroit Lions over the Dolphins: Elo 59%, market 75%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; wind 11 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites).
• DAL at IND — Dallas Cowboys over the Colts: Elo 48%, market 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo.
• BUF at MIN — Buffalo Bills over the Vikings: Elo 37%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo.

Games that swing the most

Importance is how far the league's playoff odds move between a home win and an away win, from simulated seasons. Quality is the strength of the two teams. Both 0–100.

• TB at CHI: importance 51, quality 54
• CIN at ATL: importance 46, quality 37
• GB at NE: importance 41, quality 55
• LAR at WSH: importance 38, quality 35
• CLE at NO: importance 37, quality 17

Line movement since the picks froze

• JAX at BAL: BAL 58% → 21% (money against BAL)
• DET at MIA: MIA 21% → 26% (money on MIA)
• LV at SF: SF 83% → 79% (money against SF)
• NYG at PHI: PHI 46% → 41% (money against PHI)

Where the markets disagree with each other

The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.

Every game, with a suggested slider

The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.

Week 7 in review