Week 5 breakdown

Tight agreement 5 games

Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.

• TB at DAL — Dallas Cowboys over the Buccaneers: Elo 78%, market 80%, System 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; Daniels is costing 100 Elo.
• NYG at WSH — Washington Commanders over the Giants: Elo 60%, market 63%, System 64%. Tight agreement: go above both. Winston is costing 71 Elo.
• IND at PIT — Pittsburgh Steelers over the Colts: Elo 61%, market 59%, System 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. PIT off a bye; wind 19 mph (matters), 65°F.
• LV at NE — New England Patriots over the Raiders: Elo 63%, market 62%, System 64%. Tight agreement: go above both. Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
• SF at SEA — Seattle Seahawks over the 49ers: Elo 59%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 30 Elo.

Where Elo and the market disagree 5 games

Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.

• PHI at JAX — Jacksonville Jaguars over the Eagles: Elo 63%, market 77%, System 73%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo.
• HOU at TEN — Houston Texans over the Titans: Elo 63%, market 74%, System 71%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Ward is worth 19 Elo.
• CIN at MIA — Cincinnati Bengals over the Dolphins: Elo 50%, market 76%, System 67%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo; wind 11 mph, 90°F (heat hurts favorites).
• MIN at NO — Minnesota Vikings over the Saints: Elo 77%, market 56%, System 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Murray is worth 100 Elo.
• CLE at NYJ — New York Jets over the Browns: Elo 42%, market 56%, System 53%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Smith is worth 22 Elo; Watson is worth 34 Elo; CLE off a bye.

Games that swing the most

Importance is how far the league's playoff odds move between a home win and an away win, from simulated seasons. Quality is the strength of the two teams. Both 0–100.

• NYG at WSH: importance 51, quality 20
• TB at DAL: importance 49, quality 18
• PHI at JAX: importance 48, quality 48
• IND at PIT: importance 48, quality 35
• LV at NE: importance 46, quality 38

Line movement since the picks froze

• BAL at ATL: ATL 28% → 47% (money on ATL)
• PHI at JAX: JAX 58% → 74% (money on JAX)
• CHI at GB: GB 55% → 42% (money against GB)
• DEN at LAC: LAC 46% → 37% (money against LAC)
• CIN at MIA: MIA 18% → 25% (money on MIA)
• SF at SEA: SEA 64% → 58% (money against SEA)
• NYG at WSH: WSH 59% → 62% (money on WSH)
• CLE at NYJ: NYJ 53% → 56% (money on NYJ)

Where the markets disagree with each other

The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.

Every game, with a suggested slider

The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.

Week 4 in review