Week 6 breakdown
Our picks
Frozen Thu, Oct 8, 8 PM ET. Locks 3–4, bold calls 0–7 this season.
Tight agreement 3 games
Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
- NYJ at NE — New England Patriots over the Jets: Elo 76%, market 75%, System 79%. Tight agreement: go above both. Smith is worth 22 Elo; wind 2 mph, 50°F (cold helps favorites).
- TEN at IND — Indianapolis Colts over the Titans: Elo 76%, market 73%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Ward is worth 19 Elo.
- LAC at KC — Kansas City Chiefs over the Chargers: Elo 81%, market 78%, System 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo; KC off a bye.
Where Elo and the market disagree 2 games
Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
- BUF at LV — Buffalo Bills over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 68%, System 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
- DAL at GB — Green Bay Packers over the Cowboys: Elo 60%, market 49%, System 52%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; DAL off a bye.
Games that swing the most
Importance is how far the league's playoff odds move between a home win and an away win, from simulated seasons. Quality is the strength of the two teams. Both 0–100.
- CAR at PHI: importance 52, quality 28
- DAL at GB: importance 51, quality 26
- CHI at ATL: importance 47, quality 39
- NYJ at NE: importance 47, quality 34
- BUF at LV: importance 46, quality 40
Line movement since the picks froze
- CAR at PHI: PHI 52% → 37% (money against PHI)
- DAL at GB: GB 47% → 53% (money on GB)
- HOU at JAX: JAX 61% → 56% (money against JAX)
- CHI at ATL: ATL 45% → 49% (money on ATL)
Where the markets disagree with each other
The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.
Every game, with a suggested slider
The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.
| Game | Suggested | Why |
|---|---|---|
| SEA at DEN Thu 8:15 PM ET | SEA 55% | Seattle Seahawks over the Broncos: Elo 51%, market 57%, System 55%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Lock is costing 30 Elo. |
| HOU at JAX Sun 9:30 AM ET | JAX 58% | Jacksonville Jaguars over the Texans: Elo 64%, market 56%, System 58%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. |
| CHI at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET | CHI 52% | Chicago Bears over the Falcons: Elo 53%, market 52%, System 52%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Penix is worth 28 Elo. |
| NYJ at NE Sun 1:00 PM ET | NE 77% | New England Patriots over the Jets: Elo 76%, market 75%, System 79%. Tight agreement: go above both. Smith is worth 22 Elo; wind 2 mph, 50°F (cold helps favorites). |
| NO at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | NYG 51% | New York Giants over the Saints: Elo 57%, market 50%, System 51%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Shough is costing 16 Elo. |
| BAL at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET | BAL 59% | Baltimore Ravens over the Browns: Elo 54%, market 61%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Watson is worth 34 Elo; Huntley is costing 16 Elo. |
| CAR at PHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | CAR 57% | Carolina Panthers over the Eagles: Elo 52%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. McKee is costing 29 Elo; CAR off a bye. |
| PIT at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | PIT 57% | Pittsburgh Steelers over the Buccaneers: Elo 62%, market 56%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Daniels is costing 100 Elo; TB off a bye. |
| TEN at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET | IND 76% | Indianapolis Colts over the Titans: Elo 76%, market 73%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Ward is worth 19 Elo. |
| ARI at LAR Sun 4:05 PM ET | LAR 84% | Los Angeles Rams over the Cardinals: Elo 79%, market 86%, System 86%. Clear favorite, take the average. Brissett is costing 40 Elo. |
| LAC at KC Sun 4:25 PM ET | KC 81% | Kansas City Chiefs over the Chargers: Elo 81%, market 78%, System 81%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo; KC off a bye. |
| BUF at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET | BUF 65% | Buffalo Bills over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 68%, System 65%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo. |
| DAL at GB Sun 8:20 PM ET | GB 52% | Green Bay Packers over the Cowboys: Elo 60%, market 49%, System 52%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Prescott is worth 17 Elo; DAL off a bye. |
| WSH at SF Mon 8:15 PM ET | SF 78% | San Francisco 49ers over the Commanders: Elo 81%, market 77%, System 78%. Clear favorite, take the average. |
Week 5 in review
Week leader: Mendo with +53.8.
Pure market (baba) +35.0 · Sportsbooks +34.4 · The blend +33.3 · Polymarket +31.9 · Closing spread +31.8 · Kalshi +31.2 · Maybe (Kalm) +29.0 · Cautious (baba) +26.5 · The System +26.2 · The bot crowd +24.2 · Elo (the model) +20.9 · Pure Elo (baba) +20.9 · Strong (baba) +15.6 · Bold (baba) +13.9 · The crowd +0.0 · The sharp crowd +0.0
Bold call of the week: MIA missed (CIN 31, MIA 24).
Lock of the week: DAL missed (TB 24, DAL 16).
Biggest upset: TB won at 22%.