Week 1 breakdown

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

The week, game by game. Everything here is open to all: the spots, the line moves, where the markets split, the suggested slider. Sign up for The System's number on every game, the reasoning behind our lock and bold call, and the weekly note.

Our picks

Picks freeze before the week's first kickoff, once at least half the games have a market line.

Tight agreement 6 games

Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.

NE at SEA — Seattle Seahawks over the Patriots: Elo 59%, market 59%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 34 Elo.
NO at DET — Detroit Lions over the Saints: Elo 67%, market 70%, System 71%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 18 Elo.
ATL at PIT — Pittsburgh Steelers over the Falcons: Elo 65%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 29 Elo.
TB at CIN — Cincinnati Bengals over the Buccaneers: Elo 61%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Burrow is worth 18 Elo.
ARI at LAC — Los Angeles Chargers over the Cardinals: Elo 75%, market 74%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 20 Elo; Brissett is costing 44 Elo.
WSH at PHI — Philadelphia Eagles over the Commanders: Elo 65%, market 67%, System 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 19 Elo; Daniels is worth 17 Elo.

Where Elo and the market disagree 3 games

Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.

BUF at HOU — Buffalo Bills over the Texans: Elo 41%, market 54%, System 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.
MIA at LV — Las Vegas Raiders over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 59%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 78 Elo; Willis is worth 100 Elo.
GB at MIN — Minnesota Vikings over the Packers: Elo 66%, market 54%, System 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 47 Elo.

Line movement so far

No consensus line has moved 3 points or more.

Where the markets disagree with each other

The books, Kalshi and Polymarket are within 4 points of each other on every game.

Every game, with a suggested slider

The suggestion is the blend, which is also The System. The Game plan turns it into a week: which games to press, which to keep near 50, and how hard to lean given your place on the leaderboard. Adjust for what you know that the models don't.

Game	Suggested	Why
NE at SEA Wed 8:20 PM ET	SEA 61%	Seattle Seahawks over the Patriots: Elo 59%, market 59%, System 61%. Tight agreement: go above both. Lock is costing 34 Elo.
SF at LAR Thu 8:35 PM ET	LAR 59%	Los Angeles Rams over the 49ers: Elo 54%, market 60%, System 59%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.
NO at DET Sun 1:00 PM ET	DET 71%	Detroit Lions over the Saints: Elo 67%, market 70%, System 71%. Tight agreement: go above both. Shough is costing 18 Elo.
NYJ at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET	TEN 54%	Tennessee Titans over the Jets: Elo 53%, market 54%, System 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Ward is worth 21 Elo; Smith is worth 24 Elo.
BAL at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET	BAL 57%	Baltimore Ravens over the Colts: Elo 50%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.
ATL at PIT Sun 1:00 PM ET	PIT 70%	Pittsburgh Steelers over the Falcons: Elo 65%, market 69%, System 70%. Tight agreement: go above both. Rush is costing 29 Elo.
CHI at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET	CHI 57%	Chicago Bears over the Panthers: Elo 52%, market 59%, System 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.
BUF at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET	BUF 51%	Buffalo Bills over the Texans: Elo 41%, market 54%, System 51%. Big disagreement: trust the market number.
CLE at JAX Sun 1:00 PM ET	JAX 72%	Jacksonville Jaguars over the Browns: Elo 67%, market 74%, System 72%. Clear favorite, take the average. Watson is worth 38 Elo.
TB at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET	CIN 62%	Cincinnati Bengals over the Buccaneers: Elo 61%, market 60%, System 62%. Tight agreement: go above both. Burrow is worth 18 Elo.
MIA at LV Sun 4:25 PM ET	LV 55%	Las Vegas Raiders over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 59%, System 55%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 78 Elo; Willis is worth 100 Elo.
GB at MIN Sun 4:25 PM ET	MIN 57%	Minnesota Vikings over the Packers: Elo 66%, market 54%, System 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 47 Elo.
ARI at LAC Sun 4:25 PM ET	LAC 76%	Los Angeles Chargers over the Cardinals: Elo 75%, market 74%, System 76%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 20 Elo; Brissett is costing 44 Elo.
WSH at PHI Sun 4:25 PM ET	PHI 69%	Philadelphia Eagles over the Commanders: Elo 65%, market 67%, System 69%. Tight agreement: go above both. Hurts is worth 19 Elo; Daniels is worth 17 Elo.
DAL at NYG Sun 8:20 PM ET	DAL 56%	Dallas Cowboys over the Giants: Elo 49%, market 59%, System 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Prescott is worth 19 Elo.
DEN at KC Mon 8:15 PM ET	KC 56%	Kansas City Chiefs over the Broncos: Elo 52%, market 57%, System 56%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 51 Elo.